A Bold Prediction

Photo by Keith Allison.

Last night, Zydrunas Ilgauskas passed Brad Daugherty to become the all-time leading rebounder in Cavaliers franchise history and Lebron James passed Mark Price to be become the Cavaliers' all-time steals leader. They trounced the Toronto Raptors, 114-94, which was their 9th straight victory by twelve points or more. In all these years, the NBA has never seen such a dominating win streak last this long. The Cavaliers haven't lost a home game this season. That's twelve home wins in a row, and counting - a franchise record. How about the overall record? 18-3, which is - you guessed it - the franchise's best start ever. The Cavaliers defense is suffocating, their offense firing on all cylinders. Dare I say, this team looks unstoppable. If you don't believe me, go see for yourself.

Think about how far the Cavaliers have come since last year. Things were chaotic during training camp and the first few months of the season. Aleksandar Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao were involved in contract hold-outs, the team seemed to have a hangover from their pre-season tour through China, and Larry Hughes was still on the roster. Lebron James carried the Cavaliers by himself almost every single night, averaging over forty minutes playing time. When he didn't play, the Cavaliers lost, plain and simple. During All-Star weekend they underwent a personnel change. Exit Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, and Donyell Marshall; enter Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Delonte West. The Big Trade seemed a bust, however. I twice witnessed the Cavaliers get scorched by Mo Williams and the lowly Milwaukee Bucks. The Cavaliers struggled to maintain a .500 record during the second half of the season, and amazingly held on to the four seed in the Eastern Conference. Yet, in the second round, these very average Cavaliers managed to take the Celtics, the eventual NBA champs, to the last minute of the seventh game in a seven-game series while on the road.

Well, that very average Cavaliers team wouldn't look average for much longer. On draft night, Danny Ferry picked up a promising power forward in J.J. HIckson, who turned a lot of heads in summer league. Then in August, as Lebron and his buddies were earning themselves some gold hardware in Beijing and redeeming USA Basketball's dignity on the biggest global stage, Ferry found a way to bring Mo Williams and his instantaneous, explosive offense to town. Further, West, Wallace, and Szczerbiak had more time to adapt to Mike Brown's system during the off-season and training camp.

The payoff wasn't immediate, but it still came fast. The Cavaliers won only one of their first three games, but have been on a roll ever since. Because their defense is so good and their offense so efficient, the Cavaliers have been able to build big leads fast, maintain them until the fourth quarter, and then rest their starters. This means less end-game heroics from Lebron, which means he averages less minutes; which means that if the Cavaliers keep up this routine, they may be heading into the post-season with a relatively well rested team. Moreover, if they keep winning like they do - and, barring injuries, I don't see why they won't - they very well may grab home court advantage throughout the playoffs. The Q is a madhouse. The prospects of another team beating the Cavaliers at home would be slim to none. So if a very average, Lebron-led, 07-08 Cavaliers team was only seconds from beating the 07-08 NBA champion, Big-Three-led, Celtics in game seven on the road, just imagine what a very good, well rested, Lebron-led Cavaliers team with home court advantage could do.

In lieu of this, here's my bold prediction (literally):

Cavaliers win 60+ games, earn home court advantage throughout the playoffs, and defeat the Lakers in six games, just so they can celebrate in front of the home crowd. Parties ensue throughout Northeast Ohio for three straight nights. The parade through Public Square soon follows. Cleveland sports fans breathe a sigh of relief.

God, I hope I'm right.


A Bold Prediction by Nathan M. Blackerby is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.

Iverson is now a Piston, but can he deliver a championship?

After the Piston's 2007-08 season ended with another defeat in the Eastern Conference Finals, Joe Dumars vowed that he was going to shake up the Pistons's roster. But after replacing Flip Saunders with first-year coach Michael Curry and signing the disappointment that is Kwame Brown, Dumars sat on the proverbial fence. I was surprised by this, since it was obvious to anyone who follows basketball that the team needed a face-lift if they were to make another run at an NBA championship. The 2005-2006, 2006-07, and 2007-08 teams, which had more or less the same line-up, were consistently a dominant team during the regular season. But winning almost 60+ games each season hasn't managed to help them avoid receiving anything more than a consolation prize in the Eastern Conference playoffs. In 2005-06, the Pistons ran out of gas against Dwayne Wade and the Heat after a grueling seven game series with the Cavaliers in the second round. In 2006-07, Lebron rolled over them like a MAC truck (game 5 at the Palace, anyone?). This year, the Big Three were just too much for the Pistons to handle.

All this leaves the impression that the Pistons no longer have what it takes to win in the playoffs. Simply put, they've been outmaneuvered by superstar power in the last three post-seasons. If the Pistons planned on winning the NBA championship anytime soon, they'd need to make some moves to match the star power of their rivals.

So as the summer rolled on and the Cavaliers (who traded scraps for Mo Williams), Bucks (who traded Yi Jianlian for Richard Jefferson), 76ers (who picked up Elton Brand in free agency), and others presumably got better, I couldn't help but think that the Pistons would become increasingly marginalized; not only would they be unable to win against these teams in the playoffs, they probably wouldn't beat them during the regular season either.

Of course, on Tuesday, Joe Dumars finally followed through with his promise to shake things up. The Pistons announced that they traded Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to the Nuggets for Allen Iverson. This was a good move for the Nuggets. Iverson became stagnant in Denver, so they needed to get rid of him. Billups and McDyess are stable, reliable players with a nose for defense. They should bring some of that with them. Further, Billups is a Denver native, and has said that he is happy to play for his home-town team. His sentimentality towards the team shouldn't be underestimated. I expect that it will lead Billips to play more inspired basketball. Consequently, the Nuggets should play better in both the regular season and the post-season. But the million dollar question is: will The Answer be the answer to Detroit's playoff woes?

I'm not so sure he will. But before I give my reasons, allow me to explain why I may be wrong. Iverson, despite being somewhat on the decline (he's 33), is still a fantastic player. He can create his own shot, and is thus a constant scoring threat - something that the Pistons badly needed. Moreover, he is a weathered veteran, and claims he is hungry for a championship. Now that he's on a team that has, at least to all apperances, been in contention for a championship over the last three seasons, this might be enough to light a fuse in him. We could see a resurgence of the old AI. He could go on a tear in the post-season, leaving the competition in his wake.

Or not. When it comes to winning in the playoffs, Iverson has disappointed throughout his career. The 76ers made it to the Finals just once during his tenure in Philadelphia (2000-01), only to be embarrassed by a superior Lakers team. Every other year an Iverson-led 76ers team made the playoffs, they lost in the first or second round (see the summary of the 76ers seasons here. Iverson played on the 76ers from 1996-2005 and part of the 2006-07 season). And even after being traded to the Nuggets - a team that already had a superstar in Carmelo Anthony - Iverson couldn't manage to lead them past the first round (see Nuggets seasons here. Iverson was on the roster for 2006-07 and 2007-2008). If one's prior playoff record is any indication as to how one will perform in later playoff appearances, this is bad news for Detroit. It seems that no matter who surrounds him, Iverson has made it a habit to lose in the playoffs. So why should we expect anything more out of him now that he has changed uniforms? In all likelihood the Pistons will face either Cleveland or Boston if they make it to the Eastern Conference Finals this year, and I suspect that Iverson's presence on the court won't be enough to counteract Lebron or the Big Three.

Team chemistry is also an issue. Iverson is a big time player, now amidst a team that was built on playing selfless, defensive basketball. Such selflessness and defensive-mindedness has been the recipe for the Pistons's success. Iverson just doesn't fit this picture (remember, he was on the unruly, ball-hogging, all-eyes-on-me 2004 Olympic team roster). The only way I foresee Iverson fitting into the current Piston system is if he discovers a superstar switch that he can turn on only when the Pistons are in trouble. It should remain off most of the time, though, because in order to floriush within the Pistons's system you've got to be ready to play gritty defense and team-oriented offense.

So in the end, I think the Pistons didn't fare well in this trade. But perhaps I've underestimated Joe Dumars. Perhaps he's just temporarily looking to fill more seats at the Palace and sell more jerseys while he begins his pursuit of stealing Lebron away from Cleveland in 2010. All I have to say to that is: if you think he or any other general manager is going to pull that off, don't hold your breath.

*UPDATE (Monday, November 10, 2008): The Nuggets have waived McDyess after buying out his contract. He may resign with the Pistons after 30 days, as dictated by the Gary Payton rule. If that happens, the Pistons will have essentially swapped Billups for Iverson, which makes the trade more even. So far, Iverson hasn't made an impact, though. The Pistons lost to the Nets in Iverson's debut, and lost to the Celtics in his first game (as a Piston) at the Palace.

*UPDATE (Tuesday, November 11, 2008): According to this report, the Cavaliers are interested in signing McDyess with the mid-level exception they have left over from the off-season.

*UPDATE (Sunday, November 23, 2008): McDyess will be re-signing with Detroit. With this announcement and with early returns on both teams' performance, I believe the trade has worked out fairly evenly. Detroit now has a star that may be able to get them over the top during playoff series', as demonstrated with big wins over Cleveland and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Denver has acquired a team player that knows how to run an offense, as demonstrated by the fact that they have been playing better basketball and have racked up more wins than Detroit since the trade. However, I expect to see improved performance from the Pistons after McDyess's return on December 7, 2008. After all, he was and once again will be the key bench player for their team.


Iverson is now a Piston, but can he deliver a championship? by Nathan M. Blackerby is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.